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The opportunity tree, on one page

Outcome, opportunity, solution, experiment. The map from what you're chasing down to what you're testing this week.

When you reach for it

When the roadmap is a list of features nobody can explain the reason for, and it needs reconnecting to an outcome.

  1. 1

    Outcome

    The business result you're accountable for, not a feature.

    What it asks

    What metric are you trying to move, and by when?

    Filled in

    Grow week-4 retention of new Sona signups from 22 percent to 30 percent by end of Q3.

    How it goes wrong

    Writing a feature as the outcome, like "ship budgeting alerts." An outcome is a number that moves. A feature is a guess at how to move it.

  2. 2

    Opportunities

    The needs and pain points that, if addressed, would move the outcome. Plural, because there's more than one path.

    What it asks

    List the specific problems standing between users and the outcome. One per line, each traceable to evidence.

    Filled in

    1. Users who never link a bank in week 1 almost never return in week 4 (Ana's cohort data). 2. Users say they "forgot the app existed" after week 1 (12 support chats). 3. Users who set a budget in week 1 retain at 41 percent versus 19 percent who don't (Ana's cohort data).

    How it goes wrong

    Listing solutions dressed as opportunities, like "add push notifications." Keep asking what problem the user has until the answer isn't already a feature.

  3. 3

    Solutions

    For the opportunity you're pursuing, the range of ways you could address it, so you don't marry the first idea.

    What it asks

    For your top opportunity, list at least two different ways to address it before picking one.

    Filled in

    For "never link a bank in week 1": (a) make bank linking mandatory in onboarding, (b) send a day-2 nudge if no bank is linked, (c) show a progress bar that stays visibly incomplete until a bank is linked.

    How it goes wrong

    Writing one solution because it's the one someone already wanted to build. The tree only earns its name if there's more than one branch at every level.

  4. 4

    Experiment

    The smallest test that tells you whether the chosen solution actually moves the opportunity, before you build the full version.

    What it asks

    What's the cheapest way to learn whether this solution works, and what result would make you build it for real?

    Filled in

    Send the day-2 nudge to 50 percent of new signups for two weeks. If 7-day bank-linking rate rises more than 5 points against the control, build the full nudge sequence.

    How it goes wrong

    Skipping straight to a full build because the experiment feels like extra work. The two week nudge test costs a day. The wrong full build costs a quarter.

Take the whole thing

Paste into your doc
# Opportunity tree

## Outcome
The metric you're accountable for, and the date.


## Opportunities
The problems standing between users and that outcome. One per line, each with evidence.

1.
2.
3.

## Solutions
For your top opportunity, at least two different ways to address it.

Opportunity:
(a)
(b)

## Experiment
The cheapest test that would prove or kill the solution.

Test:
Result that means "build it":
Result that means "kill it":
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